Inform Your Consent

I don’t think there is much doubt that Senator Obama came off a little flat tonight.  And John McCain came out fighting, canned attack lines at the ready, and passionate certainty on display.

Obama was professorial tonight.  Too many “ums” and “uhs”.  But he didn’t make any serious mistakes that change this race.  At most, he might have lost a couple points of support in the polls, among people who will likely continue to bounce back and forth for the next two weeks anyway.  

McCain was more forceful, armed with more detailed information than he has been in the past debates in a broader array of issues that we’ve seen from him so far on domestic policy.  He finally – and literally – distanced himself from President Bush, with a catchy, if overly smug/canned retort: “I am not President Bush.  If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.”  But McCain’s forceful, over-long attacks and interruptions also made him appear nasty and juvenile.  He also has yet to rein in that horrible sneering smile that I bet gives many other viewers the same willies it gives me — particularly when he flashes it to denigrate women have to get an abortion because their “health” (McCain actually used air quotes for snide emphasis) is at risk. 

So, all told, McCain might have gained at most a couple of points with his performance tonight; but I would guess it’s mostly with male fence sitters, not with women.

The most important line I think Senator Obama delivered – one of few memorable one-liners he delivered – was after he explained in plain English his connections to Bill Ayers.  Obama then pivoted deftly to point out the vacuum that is McCain’s campaign, given that Ayers recently became the “centerpiece” of their campaign, and that this focus, to the exclusion of the real issues in this election year, says more about John McCain than it does his opponent.  (I’d quote directly but don’t have the rush transcript yet) 

All in all, I think that Barack Obama did enough, though didn’t dazzle as much as he could have. It’s worth noting though, that because McCain and the media have made this election about Obama, and whether people can truly imagine him ready for the presidency – a threshold Obama has seemingly leapt over in the last few weeks – all he needed was to hold steady.  John McCain did the best he could have.  It was his strongest showing by far, which doesn’t say much.  But I don’t think it was enough.

Over the next few days, keep a close eye not on the national polling data, but on the polls in New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia.  If New Mexico and Colorado hold, and no other currently blue states turn purple, Obama’s got a lock on it.  Same is true if Obama can hold Virginia and New Mexico. This year, the election doesn’t have to be all about Florida and Ohio.