The Kremlin has, not shockingly, turned down the recent U.S. offer to “mitigate some of the Russian concerns” restarting an arms race – with a missile shield in Russia’s backyard – by allowing Russia to allow representatives tour the launch sites.
“Russia is ready to cooperate with the United States on European security but considers the proposals that were sent are insufficient,” Itar-Tass news agency quoted an unidentified Kremlin source as saying.
“We will not give our agreement to these proposals and we will speak to the new administration,” said the source, who was quoted by Russia’s three main news agencies, an indication the remarks reflect official policy.
Thing is, the chances of actually deterring a missile, launched from who knows what corner of the earth, are so miniscile as to make spending billions of dollars on a missile defense shield in Europe. I can’t honestly figure what makes Republicans presidents (Reagan, Bush 43) tilt after missile defense shields, other than that billion dollar technology can be cool, if not effective.
But President Obama is going to find himself in the uncomfortable position of slashing and burning the federal budget to make it through the spending, deficit and taxes gauntlet next year. And no single line item offers as much give for the take as missile defense (or, Star Wars, if you’re feeling nostalgic for the 1980’s). President-elect Obama must be asking himself, do we really need it?
Getting the U.S. to scrap or even just freeze the Bush plan for a European missile shield (again, is there evidence that it really will protect anyone?) is about as big a priority for Russia as deterring Iran’s nuclear ambitions is to the U.S. It has become the Kremlin’s #1 international priority. In fact, you have to wonder how much more cooperation we could get out of Russia on the world’s most pressing crises – starting with Iran – and is it worth slashing a program that is years away from ready anyway? Could keeping a U.S. military presence out of Poland and the Czech Republic be so vital an interest that Russia would consider backing off of Georgia and Ukraine, for good, in exchange?
Whatever Putin’s intentions may be these days, I’m guessing that he doesn’t want to or can’t commit the resources it would take to catch up to the U.S. missile shield plan. Maybe we could just outspend the Russians (or maybe they could play dirty, like with stateless terrorists). It’s like the earth fell down a rabbit hole and we are reliving a Cold War and an arms race with Russia, twenty years after the end of the Cold War, on totally new ground.
Next year’s gonna be interesting.
