Posts Tagged Presidential election

Was the media in the tank for Obama?

I’m sick of reading and talking about the media’s supposed bias toward Obama, and so let me address the topic in hopes I can exorcise it (next exorcism: Sarah Palin).

The Washington Post’s ombudsman, Deborah Howell, studied the Post’s coverage of the election and concluded that there was an “Obama tilt” to its coverage.

But why would we not expect Obama, who only clinched the Democratic nomination four months after McCain emerged the victor among Republican candidates, to rack up more coverage during that period?  Then, once Obama became the nominee, and particularly from mid-September onward, Obama led McCain in most and then all polls.  

Greg Mitchell reminds us that more than 1,200 Post stories simply covered the horse race; around 500 covered issues.  Readers can criticize the media for this imbalance.  But that, and not playing favorites, likely explains a perceived Obama tilt.  By virtue of being ahead in the horse race, Obama was more than twice as likely to net positive coverage.  Mitchell concludes:

So we will be reading for years about the strong media “bias” against McCain — look at all those “unfavorable” stories about him — when it was mainly (although perhaps not completely) a matter of Obama leading the horse race and getting credit for that by reporters who were, surprise, not deaf, dumb and blind. Does anyone doubt that if McCain had roared to the lead in October and stayed ahead until the end that the results of the studies would have been completely different?

Yes, the press is biased — in favor of recognizing who is winning and stating that (perhaps too often).

Also: Can the media be faulted if one candidate is committing the major share of gaffes or (in this age of fact-check sites) making the most inaccurate statements in speeches and in ads? Is it “bias” to recognize that? Or to vet a candidate for vice president who (we now know) had not been vetted by anyone else?

If you want to talk about lopsided coverage, how about the endless loop of Reverend Jeremiah Wright played for three months this past spring?  Who did that nonstop tape favor?  Certainly not Mr. Obama.  And does anyone believe nonstop coverage of former Weatherman Bill Ayers for the final 2-3 weeks of the general camapign really boost Mr. Obama?  

What is so ironic is that McCain himself was long the media darling, and that he only ceased to be once his media availability became more a liability to his campaign than an asset.  And there’s no one to blame for that except the candidate, and the campaign.

What’s fair to say, though, is that Obama the candidate was indeed a refreshing change from the waning days of the Bush administration, and a weakened, defensive Republican party.  President-elect Obama, and the enthusiasm his candidacy generated, proved exciting to cover.  Republicans, listen up: all you really have to do to get the press spotlight back is to make news.

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Fox News takes down Joe the Plumber

I never thought I would see a Fox News anchor go Campbell Brown on a McCainiac.  But that is exactly what Shep Smith did to Joe the Iconic Plumber.  Take a look for yourself, and see if you can figure out what happened:
 


I’m guessing that it was this statement from the now famous plumber that most galled Shep: “I’m just going to push it back on your listeners to figure out why I would agree to something like that.” Um, excuse me, did he just get away with that?  

In a bizarre twist to the last lap in this presidential election, John McCain has elevated Joe the Plumber to – basically – running mate status.  Joe’s out on the stump gladhanding and taking more press questions than Sarah Palin has in the whole general election.  The media obediently reports everything this guy says now.  But the beauty – or the horror, to a journalist – is that Joe is accountable to no one for what he says on camera (except maybe to his kids, who aren’t old enough to be embarrassed).  It’s like he’s Tucker Bounds, except he gets away with it.

It’s all a little surreal.  Joe’s now got a publicist (who will keep him from saying such stupid things in the future), and there’s talk of a country music album now.  Joe the plumber would be the most famous swing voter in history . . . if he were in fact a swing voter.  But, he’s not, and he never was. He made that perfectly clear, even before “endorsing” McCain last week.  And now he’s basically become the campaign’s mascot; a formulaic symbol, replicable into Phil the Bricklayer, Rose the Teacher or Tito the Builder (who’s stumpin’ with Sarah the Hunter Palin in Virginia now).  

I suppose it was inevitable that someone was gonna knock this guy off the pedestal John McCain has set him on; I just never thought it would happen on the Fox News Network.  Well played, Shep. Finally fair and balanced.

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Should low early vote turnout worry Democrats?

Are you a Democrat experiencing night sweats?  Then you’ve probably seen the report out of Nevada that some groups – young voters and new/lapsed voters – likely to support Obama haven’t yet overwhelmed the early voter rolls this month. 

Those are scary revelations, but is there really reason to be worried?  Here’s why I don’t think any of these statistics tell us anything useful:

1) New voters are inexperienced, and are also likely somewhat hesitant, at least when it comes to showing up to vote.  That means that they may not realize that they can vote early- and will have an easier time just running with the herd on November 4th.

2) Early voting is generally for the enthusiastic voter (that, and the early bird voter who hopes to minimize their wait in line . . . there have already been 2-5 hour waits in Florida).

3) Young voters are famous for not bothering to vote because, well, they are just a tiny bit lazier than the rest of us (they also tend to not be moved by the candidates).  They procrastinate.  They write their term papers the night before it’s due.  So is anyone really all that shocked that they aren’t first in line to vote early?

This is not to say that Democrats don’t still have reason to worry over turnout.  New and lapsed voters have old habits to break and new ones to learn.  They are easier to sidetrack, confuse and intimidate.  Getting them all to the polls will demand continued attention from the Obama campaign and its volunteers until the polls close on November 4th.  

Frankly, the most important thing about early voting numbers this time around is that we want to continue seeing record-breaking turnout.  The more folks who vote now, the less mischief and waiting the rest of us will encounter when we get to the polls next Tuesday.

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A week before the election: are the polls wrong?

During my two week absence from this blog, I’ve been able to do a slight bit of poking around on the internet.  The sense I got from what I have been reading about the US presidential election is that there are those who feel pretty confident of an Obama win, and those who are still on the fence, believing that one can not fully trust the polling data.  I find myself jumping back and forth between the two categories.

In the Washington Post, Michael Abramowitz addresses this question: are the polls really accurate?  And considering that the national polls right now swing between a 2-point margin and a 15 point margin for Obama.  How can that possibly be?  And how do we know which polls are closest to reality?

The latest ABC-Washington Post poll might be one.  This poll, which gives Obama the edge at 52-45, does not increase African American or under-30 voter turn out over the 2004 level, even though we have reason to believe that both groups are unusually motivated to get out and vote this year.  We also have reason to believe that Republican leaning voters are less likely to turnout, due both to lack of interest in the ticket and also perhaps due to a sense that the election is already over.

(The sense that the race is over could also cause some Obama leaners to stay home, which might explain why Obama has been barnstorming pretty safe territory like the state of Pennsylvania and the NBC/MSNBC network, where he will sit for several interviews this week.)

The ABC-Wash Post poll does include a random sample of cell phone-only voters, which gives it a leg up on other polls that do not.  And, of course, this poll falls basically in the middle of the latest poll findings.  And, while the polls’ margins may be all over the map, the fact is that in more than 50 national polls taken over the last six weeks, Barack Obama has been up in all but one of them (in the first of the six weeks I examined).  Shouldn’t such a long and consistent run mean this election is over?

Maybe.  But, as Abramowitz notes, the New Hampshire primary really traumatized the Obama campaign and its pollsters.  Obama was clearly polling ahead in that state and Hillary Clinton defeated him easily.  It is hard to say what really happened.  A whole new set of principles and schools of thought on polling will be minted after this year’s election is finally over.  Until then, the Obama campaign is probably going to be preoccupied trying to handicap the race very conservatively.

For starters, they have to be worried about the voters who have yet to swing to Obama.  If you haven’t gone over to Obama despite the Republican brand being so in the toilet, and John McCain having stumbled and bumbled for nearly eight straight weeks, then I am guessing you must really have a healthy (as in ‘a lot of’) amount of skepticism about the Democratic alternative.   The campaign should brace itself for 70% or more of undecideds in these polls to either swing to McCain or stay home.  Plus, there are a lot of slightly committed voters out there who are still vacillating, despite having told pollsters and friends that they think they’re going to vote for candidate X.

Of course, ask yourself how much the national polls count anyway, since the race will be won in states like Virginia, Iowa, Michigan and New Mexico.

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Want the real electoral math?

Ever wish you could just pick the president yourself instead of sitting on the sidelines wringing your hands?  You can do just that here.

So, I did the math and here’s the upshot–this election is still Obama’s to lose.  Why?  Obama can lose Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and even Minnesota, while still winning with 270 electoral votes to 262 for John McCain.  (Caveat: my math could be off by a vote or two because Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes, rather than being winner-take-all contests.)

Under that scenario, if Obama were to lose Michigan too, he’d need to pick up Minnesota and New Mexico instead, both of which are still gettable (Obama is still favored in the latest Minnesota polls). If he were to lose both Minnesota and Michigan, he’d need to pick up Colorado and New Hampshire (where Obama is up 6 points post-Palin).

If Obama were to keep Minnesota in his column but lose Pennsylvania, where he has been consistently up but not by much, he would need to keep Michigan, Colorado, and New Hampshire, or else Michigan, New Mexico and Colorado.

So whenever you start to get a little nervous about this race, just do the math.

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I heart Tina Fey

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler leave nothing unsaid in this searing and hilarious Saturday Night Live skit from last night.  When the campaign drives you crazy, just watch this video.  (I bet Hillary Clinton will- alot.) Laughter is really the best therapy.

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