Posts Tagged swing state

Obama’s closer: “Will our country be better off four years from now?”

I live in Washington, DC, so when I see a political ad, I can only assume it is intended to reach crucial swing voters in Virginia.  For the first time today, I saw a two minute spot for Barack Obama entitled “Defining Moment.”  


  
The ad is an excellent closer for Obama.  Rather than ask the question, are you better off than you were four years ago (Obama, who speaks directly to the camera, says we know the answer to that question), we should ask ourselves will we be better off four years from now.  It is an excellent, excellent question.  It speaks to people who either don’t want to blame anyone, or have come to terms with the failures of the Bush administration, and are looking toward the future.  And when you ask yourself that question, will we be better off, you imagine four years whizzing by of either McCain or Obama in charge.  

I’d be willing to bet that a lot of folks’ gut reaction is that they don’t envision things being better with McCain.  He is, afterall, closely tied to President Bush, even if he has managed to separate himself a bit more in the last few weeks.  

But because Obama is a new face, and his whole campaign turns on the notion that we should recapture hope for this country, viewers might allow themselves to imagine that this new guy could really pull it off.  They don’t know enough about him to be convinced he can’t.

Obama also addresses some of the major criticisms he must deflect to win over undecided voters in states like Ohio, Virginia, Nevada (which has the highest home foreclosure rate in the country) and Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign’s hammering Obama as a tax-and-spender seems to have tightened that race.  Obama explains how he will deal with the current financial crisis, promises tax cuts to families making less than $200,000, talks about energy independence and education, and describes how he will pay for his plans.  

It is a solid, meaty closing argument, and it ends on a positive note, something which John McCain doesn’t have the luxury of as he tries to catch up to Obama by Tuesday.

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Want the real electoral math?

Ever wish you could just pick the president yourself instead of sitting on the sidelines wringing your hands?  You can do just that here.

So, I did the math and here’s the upshot–this election is still Obama’s to lose.  Why?  Obama can lose Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and even Minnesota, while still winning with 270 electoral votes to 262 for John McCain.  (Caveat: my math could be off by a vote or two because Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes, rather than being winner-take-all contests.)

Under that scenario, if Obama were to lose Michigan too, he’d need to pick up Minnesota and New Mexico instead, both of which are still gettable (Obama is still favored in the latest Minnesota polls). If he were to lose both Minnesota and Michigan, he’d need to pick up Colorado and New Hampshire (where Obama is up 6 points post-Palin).

If Obama were to keep Minnesota in his column but lose Pennsylvania, where he has been consistently up but not by much, he would need to keep Michigan, Colorado, and New Hampshire, or else Michigan, New Mexico and Colorado.

So whenever you start to get a little nervous about this race, just do the math.

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