Posts Tagged Florida

Yes, we did!

People, did that election really just happen?  

I’ve had a hard time figuring out what to write about the election of Barack Obama last night; it’s just such a stunning leap for America, after the hyper divisiveness of the last 8-16 years.  All along I, even as a white American, feared that the politics of race and culture, which were arguably stoked by the McCain campaign in the final month or so of the election, would carry the day.  

And then there was the post traumatic stress disorder of the 2000’s – hanging chads and recount battles in Florida.  Many, many Democrats believe that election was stolen, not merely by an electoral system that favored geographic diversity, but by the one government body that was meant to be unpolitical- the Supreme Court.  And then came voting irregularities Ohio in 2004, calls for Kerry to contest the state.  Could the voting machines be trusted anymore?  Was this really the greatest democracy on Earth?  

So when first Pennsylvania, then Ohio, then Florida and even Virginia were called for Senator Obama without incident or significant delay, and in fact, with comfortable margins, it just didn’t seem real. But not quite believing it didn’t stop Democrats from reveling into the wee hours around this country last night.  But it wasn’t just about Democrats; it was really about the man we had elected and what it meant for the country at this time in history.  Over at fivethirtyeight.com, I found a great description of the mood here in Washington, D.C.:  

America’s only remaining buttoned-downed town, horns were honking in a ticker-tape stream until three in the morning, and strangers black, white and otherwise were hooting and hollering and giving one another thumbs-ups and high-fives as they passed each other on the street.

There was no sense of anger, or rivalry, no sense that the enemy had been vanquished. There was, rather, a tremendous sense of empowerment in the notion that someone more like them was going to take up residence down the street: someone younger, someone blacker, someone poorer, someone who knew that the majesty of America exists not just in the tranquility of its small towns but also in the bustle of its cities.

It was an historic and emotional night for America.  There’s no way to know exactly what kind of president Mr. Obama will turn out to be.  But his election tells a lot about the electorate who just sent the first black man in the history of our country to the White House.  We may not all agree on the politics, but maybe, just maybe, we are not quite as divided as we feared.

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Here’s how to call this race before the West Coast polls close

If ever an election could give Democrats and Republicans alike a stomach ulcer, this would be it.

This election night, we could all be up waiting, pretty late, for the final call on this race.  Why?  For starters, California’s 55 electoral votes can’t be counted (or called by networks) until after their polls close- three hours after the east coast polls have closed, and, unless Obama sweeps the east coast, including Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, he needs California to officially lock it in).  And since it isn’t terribly likely that Obama can pull off such a complete sweep, then you have three mountain west battleground states, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, that could all play a down-to-the-wire role for either candidate.

So, for those of you who are frustrated that by 10:00 or 11:00 pm or so, none of the networks have called the race and neither of the two major party candidates has conceded the race, but you really, really want to a) go to bed election night knowing who the next president will be, or, b) go out on the town to revel in your candidate’s impending and assured success, I think I’ve got your answer:

OBAMA WINS: If Pennsylvania and Virginia go for Barack Obama (and the pollsters aren’t wrong on New Hampshire this time), this thing is over, baby.  Over. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico can all go to McCain at whatever hour of the night or morning it takes- won’t matter.  Obama still comes out ahead.  So, your revelry or bedtime could depend on how close the vote in Pennsylvania and Virginia are, and how long it takes to count them (if it isn’t very close, network statisticians will call the state’s race, and, of course, we’re less likely to see a Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004 mess).  Does this seem too simple, too easy, to believe? You can check my math here.

McCAIN WINS: Because McCain is down in so many of the battleground state polls, in many cases by more than the margin of error, it would be very hard to definitively call the race for him early. Because if he wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, that merely shows he surprised in those states, and he will have to surprise in other states to win this thing.  Yet, such shockers could indicate a larger trend for McCain, and would give his supporters reason to stay up late to watch to the end.

I’ll make this prediction, for whatever it’s worth: You can call this thing for Barack Obama before midnight election night.

No matter who you are supporting in this election, please, GO OUT AND VOTE.

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Does Obama have a lock on this thing now?

With his surprisingly strong showings in Quinnipiac’s latest polls in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, Barack Obama’s prospects for winning this thing have never looked better.  Even if these three polls are extreme outliers (wait, Obama up by how many in Florida??), they do mirror the less dramatic shift we’ve seen in other polls in the last two weeks in not just these three states, but all of the ten most watched battlegrounds.

Obama’s uncomfortably tight mid-September leads in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico and Pennsylvania are now in the 4 – 10 point range.  Michigan, which had been a top target for the McCain campaign is looking like safe Obama country, he’s surging in Virginia to at least a real neck-and-neck tie (new polls show a < 2 point Obama edge), and, the Quinnipiac poll shows a burst of support for Obama in Ohio, a must-win for McCain.  Incredibly, Obama’s even putting North Carolina back in play.  (New NC polling also shows incumbent GOP senator Elizabeth Dole is now in serious trouble.)  And of course, no one mentions the perennial battleground state of Iowa, because, well, it practically in the “solid” Obama column this year.

As I have previously written, Obama’s path to electoral victory is much easier than McCain’s.  So long as he keeps Michigan and Pennsylvania (and, having already pocketed Iowa), and retains Minnesota and Wisconsin, then it’s just a matter of picking a couple of the remaining 6-8 swing states.  If McCain can’t pick off any of the four states I just mentioned, he needs to pretty much sweep the remaining swing states.  And now he is behind in almost all of them (I haven’t yet mentioned Nevada, which still slightly leans McCain, or New Hampshire, which has been leaning Obama).

Andrew Romano, over at Newsweek, puts this winning streak in perspective:

Does this mean that McCain is toast? Hardly. As September has shown, support for the candidates can fluctuate wildly in response to events, and there’s still time remaining on the clock for a comeback. Obama could still lose–easily. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the Arizona senator now faces a steeper climb than ever before–with fewer days left for climbing.  As the New Republic’s John Judis has pointed out, “since 1960, Gallup’s [Oct. 1] tracking poll registered the winner in the popular vote (including Al Gore in 2000), eleven of twelve times.” Usually the race narrows somewhat at the end, but “in six of th[o]se elections–1960, 1964, 1976, 1984, 1988 and 2000–the final margin was different from the Oct. 1 polling results by less than three percentage points.”

Which is why Obamans should be heartened by the latest stats from Gallup: Obama 50, McCain 42. On Election Day, the Bradley Effect–overstated support for black candidates–may cost Obama two or three points at the polls. Undersampled cell-phone voters and increased black and youth turnout may boost him by the same amount–or more. But either way, the fact remains: Obama merely needs to maintain altitude between now and Nov. 4. McCain needs to bring him down.

And how.  If the election were held today, the result would be 348 (Obama) -189 (McCain).  Yesterday, the map showed 301 – 237.  And two weeks ago, when McCain was riding a really long post-convention bump, it was still at 273 – 265 (in this scenario, New Hampshire could decide the election).

One very narrow path I see to McCain pulling off an upset is through Sarah Palin.  While all the other trending Democratic battleground states get bluer (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan), Minnesota stubbornly remains on the fence.  Could Sarah Palin’s hockey mom vibe help McCain here?  I guess the post-Veep debate polls will tell.

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