Posts Tagged Putin

From Russia, with love (for the next guy)

November 13, 2008 at 1:37 am · Filed under foreign affairs ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Kremlin has, not shockingly, turned down the recent U.S. offer to “mitigate some of the Russian concerns” restarting an arms race – with a missile shield in Russia’s backyard – by allowing Russia to allow representatives tour the launch sites. 

“Russia is ready to cooperate with the United States on European security but considers the proposals that were sent are insufficient,” Itar-Tass news agency quoted an unidentified Kremlin source as saying.

“We will not give our agreement to these proposals and we will speak to the new administration,” said the source, who was quoted by Russia’s three main news agencies, an indication the remarks reflect official policy.

Thing is, the chances of actually deterring a missile, launched from who knows what corner of the earth, are so miniscile as to make spending billions of dollars on a missile defense shield in Europe. I can’t honestly figure what makes Republicans presidents (Reagan, Bush 43) tilt after missile defense shields, other than that billion dollar technology can be cool, if not effective.

But President Obama is going to find himself in the uncomfortable position of slashing and burning the federal budget to make it through the spending, deficit and taxes gauntlet next year.  And no single line item offers as much give for the take as missile defense (or, Star Wars, if you’re feeling nostalgic for the 1980’s).  President-elect Obama must be asking himself, do we really need it?

Getting the U.S. to scrap or even just freeze the Bush plan for a European missile shield (again, is there evidence that it really will protect anyone?) is about as big a priority for Russia as deterring Iran’s nuclear ambitions is to the U.S.  It has become the Kremlin’s #1 international priority.  In fact, you have to wonder how much more cooperation we could get out of Russia on the world’s most pressing crises – starting with Iran – and is it worth slashing a program that is years away from ready anyway?  Could keeping a U.S. military presence out of Poland and the Czech Republic be so vital an interest that Russia would consider backing off of Georgia and Ukraine, for good, in exchange?  

Whatever Putin’s intentions may be these days, I’m guessing that he doesn’t want to or can’t commit the resources it would take to catch up to the U.S. missile shield plan.  Maybe we could just outspend the Russians (or maybe they could play dirty, like with stateless terrorists).  It’s like the earth fell down a rabbit hole and we are reliving a Cold War and an arms race with Russia, twenty years after the end of the Cold War, on totally new ground. 

Next year’s gonna be interesting.

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Round-up: Georgia, Russia, Venezuela

September 15, 2008 at 2:03 am · Filed under foreign affairs ·Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Georgia’s former defense minister Irakly Okruashvili claims that he helped President Saakashvili draw up invasion plans to retake the breakaway regions of Abkhasia and South Ossetia three years ago, but that President Bush had made clear that the U.S. would not be able to help Georgia militarily if it were to invade.  Okruashvili, described as a hawk on foreign policy, noted that Russia built up its military presence in the Caucasus region– “for us” (the Georgians)–in 2006, making it impossible to successfully execute the invasion plan.  He goes on to say that Saakashvili was reckless in invading South Ossetia this summer, miscalculating that U.S. diplomatic pressure would stay a Russian response.  In January, Okruahsvili fled Georgia, upon his conviction and sentencing (to 11 years) on corruption charges he claims were trumped up to quiet a critic of the president.  His account could certainly be a play for fame in the event Saakashvili loses the presidency, but if it is true, it gives one pause about the judgment of John McCain’s good buddy Misha (Saakashvili to those who don’t know him personally), and the wisdom of pushing for Georgia to get into NATO.  Although, I read recently that a country cannot get into NATO if its borders are under dispute (for obvious reasons).

 

The Russian Newspaper Pravda published perhaps the most vile commentary (if it passes for that) I’ve ever read- though I can’t be sure the paper doesn’t always read this way.  The foul-mouthed, over-the-top inappropriate piece takes Sarah Palin to task for her recent ignorant and arrogant comments about U.S. policy toward Russia.  I found her comments showed just how unprepared for the presidency (or vice presidency) she truly is.  But any valid points the commentary could have made are erased by the gratuitous insults throughout.  However, reading this wacko commentary will teach you about the challenges ahead in for U.S. -Russian relations generally speaking–and the writer correctly points out that Russia has a nuclear arsenal to think about.  While the writer doesn’t speak for the Russian government, his hysterical response is an example of the kind of diplomacy Palin would so misguidedly get us into.  Thanks, but no thanks.

However, this commentary by Natan Sharansky in today’s Washington Post, is worth a read, as it sheds light on what went wrong with our post Cold War relationship with Russia.  A key point is that when Putin first took over, the United States missed prime opportunities to use the fabled “carrot” to advance the relationship.  Then, when Putin began to roll back democratic reforms, the United States failed to use the stick.

 

Well, Venezuela is lost.  

At least that is what many Venezuelans must be thinking after President Chavez appears to have pushed through a number of reforms by presidential decree that were rejected in a national referendum seven months ago.  More and more, Venezuela is turning into yesterday’s Cuba — with oil.  I say yesterday’s Cuba because the full-on socialist model in Cuba has not reaped tremendous results, popularized education and primary healthcare excepted.  In fact, many would say it has failed spectacularly, and that to survive, Cuba must open up the economy more to the free market.  These developments in Venezuela are all the more discouraging when you take into account the burgeoning relationship with Russia.  Whether Chavez’ Bolivarian revolution will really take off in any of the rest of Latin America is not terribly likely, but the region is not likely to shun him while the country continues to be such a major player in the petroleum market.  As this commentary notes, so many of us incorrectly breathed a sigh of relief to see Chavez seemingly chastened by the referendum’s defeat early this year, and even that the “end of the Chavez era” seemed to be in sight.

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