Posts Tagged Virginia

Here’s how to call this race before the West Coast polls close

November 2, 2008 at 4:27 pm · Filed under Politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

If ever an election could give Democrats and Republicans alike a stomach ulcer, this would be it.

This election night, we could all be up waiting, pretty late, for the final call on this race.  Why?  For starters, California’s 55 electoral votes can’t be counted (or called by networks) until after their polls close- three hours after the east coast polls have closed, and, unless Obama sweeps the east coast, including Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, he needs California to officially lock it in).  And since it isn’t terribly likely that Obama can pull off such a complete sweep, then you have three mountain west battleground states, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, that could all play a down-to-the-wire role for either candidate.

So, for those of you who are frustrated that by 10:00 or 11:00 pm or so, none of the networks have called the race and neither of the two major party candidates has conceded the race, but you really, really want to a) go to bed election night knowing who the next president will be, or, b) go out on the town to revel in your candidate’s impending and assured success, I think I’ve got your answer:

OBAMA WINS: If Pennsylvania and Virginia go for Barack Obama (and the pollsters aren’t wrong on New Hampshire this time), this thing is over, baby.  Over. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico can all go to McCain at whatever hour of the night or morning it takes- won’t matter.  Obama still comes out ahead.  So, your revelry or bedtime could depend on how close the vote in Pennsylvania and Virginia are, and how long it takes to count them (if it isn’t very close, network statisticians will call the state’s race, and, of course, we’re less likely to see a Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004 mess).  Does this seem too simple, too easy, to believe? You can check my math here.

McCAIN WINS: Because McCain is down in so many of the battleground state polls, in many cases by more than the margin of error, it would be very hard to definitively call the race for him early. Because if he wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, that merely shows he surprised in those states, and he will have to surprise in other states to win this thing.  Yet, such shockers could indicate a larger trend for McCain, and would give his supporters reason to stay up late to watch to the end.

I’ll make this prediction, for whatever it’s worth: You can call this thing for Barack Obama before midnight election night.

No matter who you are supporting in this election, please, GO OUT AND VOTE.

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Obama’s closer: “Will our country be better off four years from now?”

November 1, 2008 at 9:42 pm · Filed under Uncategorized ·Tagged , , , , , , , ,

I live in Washington, DC, so when I see a political ad, I can only assume it is intended to reach crucial swing voters in Virginia.  For the first time today, I saw a two minute spot for Barack Obama entitled “Defining Moment.”  


  
The ad is an excellent closer for Obama.  Rather than ask the question, are you better off than you were four years ago (Obama, who speaks directly to the camera, says we know the answer to that question), we should ask ourselves will we be better off four years from now.  It is an excellent, excellent question.  It speaks to people who either don’t want to blame anyone, or have come to terms with the failures of the Bush administration, and are looking toward the future.  And when you ask yourself that question, will we be better off, you imagine four years whizzing by of either McCain or Obama in charge.  

I’d be willing to bet that a lot of folks’ gut reaction is that they don’t envision things being better with McCain.  He is, afterall, closely tied to President Bush, even if he has managed to separate himself a bit more in the last few weeks.  

But because Obama is a new face, and his whole campaign turns on the notion that we should recapture hope for this country, viewers might allow themselves to imagine that this new guy could really pull it off.  They don’t know enough about him to be convinced he can’t.

Obama also addresses some of the major criticisms he must deflect to win over undecided voters in states like Ohio, Virginia, Nevada (which has the highest home foreclosure rate in the country) and Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign’s hammering Obama as a tax-and-spender seems to have tightened that race.  Obama explains how he will deal with the current financial crisis, promises tax cuts to families making less than $200,000, talks about energy independence and education, and describes how he will pay for his plans.  

It is a solid, meaty closing argument, and it ends on a positive note, something which John McCain doesn’t have the luxury of as he tries to catch up to Obama by Tuesday.

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Joe McCain makes inroads in Virginia – for Obama

October 29, 2008 at 5:38 pm · Filed under Politics ·Tagged , , , ,

If you are John McCain, the last thing you need is your brother to make an ass of himself in the homestretch before the election, in the one state you must bring back into your column.  Because, let’s face it, if Pennsylvania picked John Kerry the windsurfer four years ago when the economy was doing just fine, John McCain cannot win it.  Virginia, on the other hand, hasn’t voted Democratic for president in decades.  Virginia, like Florida, is one of those toss-up states that you just don’t believe will go blue, no matter what the polls say at the moment.

Perhaps that is what Joe McCain was thinking when he removed his thinking cap and made a monumentally idiotic phonecall that was recorded and released for public consumption.  Joe McCain was sitting in traffic for about 15 minutes and called 911 to find out why traffic on his side of the highway was stalled.  After cursing at the operator, and then getting a message back from the operator admonishing him from using that line for a non-emergency, hot-headed (Joe) McCain calls back.  True story.

Now, maybe there are some Virginians who will never hear this story.  But I can tell you which ones surely will.  They are the Virginians in the northern half of the state who, resigned to one of the most horrible commutes in the country, resist the urge to call 911 and turn on their local radio news to get them through their several hours-long commute every day.

You can almost hear the giant sucking sound of fence-sitting northern Virginia voters writing off the other McCain as they fume all the way slowly home for the day.

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The road to the White House will run through Virginia

October 20, 2008 at 6:21 pm · Filed under Politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I agree with Simon Rosenberg at the Huffington Post, who counsels election watchers not to mistake a tightening race this week for a McCain comeback.

My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.

McCain’s gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain’s likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.

Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.

Remember to factor in a couple of points for Bob Barr and perennial candidate Ralph Nader, and keep in mind that George Bush won in 2004 with just 49 percent of the popular vote.  So long as Obama’s national poll numbers hover around and above the 50% mark, he’s in a good position.

Then take into account possible factors like the cell phone vote (who are not really accounted for in most polls) and of course the fabled Bradley effect.  Some analysts have also referred to a possible reverse Bradley effect, suggesting that some people who live in communities less likely to vote for a black man may not feel comfortable expressing support for Obama in a phone interview, but might actually vote for Obama once inside the booth.  This hypothesis originates in a study done on the 2008 Democratic primary results found that Obama outperformed poll spreads by an average of 7%.

The researchers attributed the inaccuracy of the polls to social influences. For instance, Greenwald said many women told pollsters they were voting for Hillary Clinton but ultimately cast their ballots for Obama.

“I don’t think they’re lying to pollsters,” Greenwald said, explaining that pollsters are contacting people who are undecided and may feel pressure to say they’re voting for the candidate who most closely identifies with them socially. 

Greenwald said he expects to see the reverse effect in the general election, but mostly among older voters who say they’re supporting John McCain. He expects many will pull the lever for Obama based, on multiple reasons, including the financial crisis. This trend could determine the outcome of the election, Greenwald said, if Obama’s lead shrinks in some state polls. 

Races always tighten toward the end.  We are nearing the final sprint in the race, and as Rosenburg points out, McCain’s poll numbers over the last month reflect how badly he and Palin damaged their numbers. Absent further missteps, McCain could get back into the mid to upper 40’s.  But he will have to watch out for the “Why bother?” effect on his side: if he looks sure to lose in the final days, some McCain leaning voters may just stay home.

At the same time, Obama needs to make sure his supporters don’t get complacent, and he has warned as much.  Obama’s numbers will also be affected by whether his campaign has been able to get out the early vote, when voters were comforted by his calm demeanor through the financial crisis and McCain was cratering.  This year is an important test, as well, of whether the Democrats can get their new and less-likely-to-show-up voters to the polls.  For all their disadvantages this year, the Republican party is typically quite effective at turning out its vote through churches and neighbor-to-neighbor contacts.

Obviously, the election doesn’t come down to the national popular vote tallies.  In my opinion, Obama’s clearest path to the White House runs through Virginia.  If he can hold this state, it is nearly impossible for McCain to win (Obama stands at 286 electoral votes with the Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa and New Hampshire battlegrounds in his column).  The Obama campaign’s effort to court a host of red and newly purple state voters – North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada – is smart because it forces McCain and Palin to spend precious time in these states.  Plus, if these states do actually swing to Obama, then he’ll walk into the White House with not just a Democratic Congress but with a mandate.

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