Archive for September 28, 2008

You call that a breakthrough?

Given the brouhaha House Republicans started last week over the bailout plan that was emerging in bicameral negotiations, you’d think that the deal that was just announced this weekend would look quite a bit different than it did last Thursday. But you would be wrong.

Officials said they had also agreed to include a proposal by House Republicans that gives the Treasury secretary an additional option of issuing government insurance for troubled financial instruments as a way of reducing the amount of taxpayer money spent up front on the rescue effort.

The Treasury would be required to create the insurance program, officials said, but not necessarily to use it. Mr. Paulson had expressed little interest in that plan, and initial cost projections suggested it would be enormously expensive. But final details were not immediately available.

Then, another bitter fight on how to pay for any losses:

Among the last sticking points was an unexpected and bitter fight over how to pay for any losses that taxpayers may experience after distressed debt has been purchased and resold.

Democrats had pushed for a fee on securities transactions, essentially a tax on financial firms, saying it was fitting that they contribute to the cost.

In the end, lawmakers and the administration opted to leave the decision to the next president, who must present a proposal to Congress to pay for any losses.

If this is what they ended up with, what was all the kicking and screaming about?  That’s not a breakthrough; it’s the agreement they had on Thursday.

And, why exactly would Republicans oppose making financial firms pay for any losses the taxpayers incur, when it was their opposition to taxpayers footing this bill that nearly killed the bailout in the first place?

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Who won the debate?

If the debate were judged on the opening “lead” question alone, then Barack Obama won handily. But John McCain recovered from a shaky, unfocused beginning, and went on the offensive during the foreign policy portion of the debate.  He did very well, despite such a tumultuous week for his campaign.  He was surefooted and detailed oriented.  But his obvious condescension toward Obama was unattractive, as were his satisfied grimaces (McCain has an uncanny ability to look tense and angry when he is pleased) and his inability to turn and dialogue with his opponent.

While Obama did not turn in the knock out punch performance his supporters wanted, he did what he had to, and he did it well.  Obama was confident and concise.  The most important thing he had to do was to stop rambling like a professor you tune out halfway through a lecture.  His answers were meaty, purposeful and reassuring.  In fact, it was McCain who would dive into language that means nothing to people beyond the beltway, and never really channeled the anxiety of the middle class voter.

McCain did an excellent job of reminding viewers that he has years of experience dealing with foreign policy, but Obama also effectively reminded viewers about the candidates’ judgment.  He scolded McCain for talking as if the war in Iraq started last year, with the surge, when in fact it started 5 long years ago.  McCain beat on Obama for his willingness to meet with foreign leaders; a statement I am sure Obama wishes he could just plain take back, because there is never a response that closes the door on the discussion.

Yet, Obama did land a good hit on McCain, making him seem way out of touch on dealing with friends and foes when he said this: he would not meet potentially with the Prime Minister of Spain.  “I mean, Spain,” he repeated for incredulous emphasis.  “Spain is a NATO ally.  If we can’t meet with our friends, I don’t know how we are going to lead the world in dealing with critical issues like terrorism.”

One of the most compelling moments of the debate was when John McCain showed a bracelet he wears in honor of a fallen soldier.  His mother gave it to Mr. McCain and asked him to finish the mission in Iraq, and make sure his death was not in vain.  Obama countered, “I have a bracelet too,” from a mother who told Obama she didn’t want any more mothers to feel the pain she has suffered.  It was a powerful contrast.

All in all, it was a very balanced debate.  I am not sure that McCain brought any fence-sitters to his side, but Obama’s confidence just might have.  A CBS poll showed that more people felt better about Obama after the debate than they did about McCain.  Both the CBS poll and a CNN poll of viewers gave Obama the edge (51% to 38% in the CNN poll).  Obama walked away with a double-digit lead on the economy, and even edged out McCain on handling the war in Iraq.  And while more people thought John McCain was ready to be president, Obama gained 16% points on that score.

More good news for Obama – LA Times/Bloomburg just released a post-debate poll:

Though more voters still see McCain as more knowledgeable, Obama was seen as more “presidential” by 46% of debate-watchers, compared with 33% for the Arizona senator.

The difference is even more pronounced among debate-watchers who were not firmly committed to a candidate: 44% said they believed Obama looked more presidential, whereas 16% gave McCain the advantage.

The Republican candidate also has lost ground on several measures of voter confidence, including trust.

After the debate, 43% of registered voters who saw the event said Obama had more “honesty and integrity,” compared with 34% for McCain. A week ago, the same voters were evenly divided, with each candidate winning the trust of 40% of respondents.

Voters are also less confident than a week ago that McCain will strengthen the economy and less convinced he cares about voters like themselves.

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